OPZ.IO | BTCUSDT 1H AI-Prediction Dashboard
Beta v1.2
Data Source: Qlib. Last Data Point Used: 2025-06-27 11:00 (UTC)
Overall Metrics (Walk-Forward OOS): RMSE=3479.069, MAE=2196.723, R²=0.954, HitRate=48.31%
Model: Stacked Ensemble (CatBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, PyTorch MLP) + Calendar Impact
| # | UTC Time | Event | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025-06-27 12:30 | Core PCE Price Index m/m | A higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index suggests a cooling of inflation, which could lead to lower interest rates and increased risk appetite, potentially benefiting Bitcoin as an alternative asset. Conversely, a lower-than-expected index could indicate persistent inflation, leading to higher interest rates and a negative impact on Bitcoin. |
| 2 | 2025-07-01 09:00 | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | A positive ISM Manufacturing PMI suggests a strengthening US economy, which typically leads to increased risk appetite and potentially higher demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. However, the magnitude of the impact is relatively small, hence the modest increase in the forecast. |
| 3 | 2025-07-01 12:00 | US Fed Chair Powell Speaks | Powell's hawkish tone regarding future interest rate hikes likely increased risk aversion, leading to a decrease in Bitcoin's value. The market generally interprets Fed statements as a negative signal for risk assets like Bitcoin. |
| 4 | 2025-07-01 12:00 | US JOLTS Job Openings | A strong JOLTS report indicates a tight labor market, which could lead to increased wage growth and potentially fuel inflation, impacting investor sentiment towards Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Conversely, a weak report might suggest a cooling economy, potentially reducing the appeal of Bitcoin as a store of value. |
| 5 | 2025-07-03 07:30 | US Average Hourly Earnings m/m | A higher-than-expected increase in US average hourly earnings suggests a stronger labor market, which could lead to increased consumer spending and potentially drive demand for Bitcoin as a store of value or hedge against inflation. Conversely, a lower-than-expected increase could signal economic weakness and dampen enthusiasm for Bitcoin. |
| 6 | 2025-07-03 09:00 | US ISM Services PMI | A positive ISM Services PMI indicates a strengthening of the US service sector, which typically correlates with increased economic activity and potentially higher demand for Bitcoin as a store of value. However, the impact is moderate, reflecting the fact that the ISM index is just one indicator among many. |
| 7 | 2025-07-03 12:00 | US Non-Farm Employment Change | Line 2: A strong positive number suggests economic growth and increased liquidity, which typically boosts Bitcoin's price. Conversely, a negative number indicates economic weakness, potentially leading to a decline in Bitcoin's value. |
| 8 | 2025-07-03 12:00 | US Unemployment Rate | A lower-than-expected unemployment rate typically indicates a strong economy, which could lead to increased investor confidence and a higher demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. However, it could also lead to increased risk aversion, potentially driving investors away from Bitcoin. |
This chart shows the last 30 days (actual & predicted) plus the iterative 10-day forecast (240 hours). The forecast is generated using a stacked ensemble model trained on the entire dataset.
| # | UTC Time | Event | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025-06-27 12:30 | Core PCE Price Index m/m | A higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index suggests a cooling of inflation, which could lead to lower interest rates and increased risk appetite, potentially benefiting Bitcoin as an alternative asset. Conversely, a lower-than-expected index could indicate persistent inflation, leading to higher interest rates and a negative impact on Bitcoin. |
This chart shows the most recent 6 hours of actual prices (Out-of-Sample) and the next 24 hours predicted prices, plotted on a real datetime axis for clarity.